The Electric Future may be Cheaper & Come Later

It’s another week in 2018, meaning there’s been a new batch of news about electric vehicles since they’re pretty much regarded as the future of motoring. But how fast that future is coming is very much in question, and a new study from the Centers for Automotive Research suggests it’s not any time soon. According to the study, government emissions and fuel economy mandates are helping drive the push into future technologies, rather than consumer interest, which tracks with the amount of people leasing electric vehicles instead of buying them.

The research suggests that electrification and self-driving tech will start in densely-populated urban areas with ride sharing services and slowly proliferate to the rest of the market with EVs expected to comprise just eight percent of the vehicle market by 2030. Remember that several cities and countries are aiming to ban the sales of gasoline and diesel-powered cars by 2040, so to make up a 92% gap in adoption in the span of ten years will require some serious incentives or some revised expectations. Additionally, any sort of slowing new vehicle sales market (like we’re seeing now) or economic downturn (like what might result from the ridiculously high deep subprime vehicle loan market) would push adoption even further down the line. 

The United Kingdom’s National Grid, however, isn’t waiting around for electric cars to take off. The electric utility announced this week that they would spend between £500 million and £1 billion to upgrade the electrical grid and install 50 fast chargers throughout the country to the point that 90% of the population would live within 50 miles of a fast charger. Such chargers would fill batteries in most EVs in about 12 minutes, which will go a long way toward soothing the range anxiety of British EV owners. Current demand for such chargers may be low, but in 2017, for the first time, the Tesla Model S outsold both the BMW 7 series and the Mercedes S-Class, so demand is certainly there among the upper crust buyers.

Photo by The Washington Post

But you may not see many other cars at those chargers for some time since the Centers for Automotive Research also suggested that investment in electric vehicle technology would slow over the next few years as companies fail to see the return on their investment with slow sales. Part of the problem with investment is that production of EVs is still very expensive because of rare earth elements like cobalt, which is used in batteries. The demand for cobalt has driven a boom in small-scale cobalt production in Africa, particularly the Democratic Republic of Congo, where some mines have been found using child labor to meet production quotas. These small-scale mines, which are sometimes referred to as “artisanal mines” because nothing can just have a normal name anymore, are tough to police and companies that purchase from them are increasingly under pressure to better vet how the resources are being produced. The value of cobalt has tripled in the last 18 months, and companies looking for the lowest cost aren’t likely to commit too much effort into ensuring their suppliers are acting ethically, which is a problem. Unfortunately, the answer usually means slowing the pace of production or paying more from reputable miners.

Toyota, however, is exploring a third option, which is developing batteries that don’t rely on rare-earth elements. While they haven’t yet found a replacement for cobalt, they have developed a battery that uses less neodymium, replacing it with lanthanum and cerium, which I understand are much more abundant and cheaper despite the fact that I’ve never heard of them before. That said, the development will take a while to get itself into vehicles and Toyota is aiming for implementation sometime in the next ten years, which won’t help potential neodymium shortages in the near-term. Now to figure out that whole cobalt thing…

Authored by
Devlin Riggs

The Future of Gas

I talk an awful lot about electric cars on my podcast, and for good reason. They’re widely accepted as the future of motoring, whether they be powered exclusively by batteries, by hydrogen fuel cells or some sort of capacitor setup we’ve yet to see. And the reasons for this are myriad - EVs produce fewer carbon emissions, they have fewer moving parts so are in theory more reliable, they make less noise and better pair with autonomous systems and, critically, there is a finite amount of oil on this planet to power internal combustion cars. 

But the truth is, and I’ve spoken to this before, I love gasoline. I love pumping it into a tank for five minutes and turning a key or pressing a button and having an electric motor spit that gasoline into a chamber whose sole purpose is to contain a tiny explosion ignited by a little electric spark. And, more than anything else, I love the sound it makes. I love the fire and the fury of a singing six cylinder and the rumbling burble of a V8, even at idle. I love the angry beehive of a turbocharged four cylinder or the raucous rasp of a V-twin, or especially my inline triple. And I will miss all of those things when gasoline engines go away. 

But fortunately, I don’t think we’re in danger of that, at least not for many years. In 2017, electric vehicles made up less than a tenth of a percent of total vehicle sales in the United States, and, sure, they did better elsewhere in the world where incentives are higher or there are more models available or where the income gap is narrower and people have more funds to spend on more expensive electric vehicles, but most analysts predict it will be at least 2025 before electric vehicles are on parity with internal combustion cars in terms of costs.

With the average price of new cars rising every year and the income gap only widening, an increasing majority of the auto buying public will be priced out of electric vehicles even when their average price matches gasoline cars. Buyers will continue to buy used petrol-powered cars until the third or fourth generation of EVs are out and the initial versions have depreciated to the point where they’re affordable. Even then, you’ll have the issue of battery life/reliability and the question of whether infrastructure has built up enough for buyers to see EVs as worthy competitors to good old gas engines.

According to a new report by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, the rate of car ownership in the US is increasing, from .756 vehicles per person in 2015 to .766 vehicles per person in 2016, so there’s a very real chance that, of the people who will be buying an electric car, they’ll be buying it to complement their existing gas vehicles or to serve as a commuting car.

Another report from Bank of America predicts that the U.S. will reach peak oil demand in 2030, meaning there will be no further growth in the demand for oil or gasoline. This, they say, will be directly caused by the increasing share of electric vehicles in the automotive marketplace, which is great. Why is it great if I’m trying to make an argument for gas cars? Because less demand means that we could run into oversupply situations where gas gets even cheaper for those holdouts of gasoline cars like myself and low income households who can’t afford electric vehicles. There’s obviously a risk that oil companies anticipate this and start to curb their drilling or cut supplies, but, from my knowledge of the oil and gas industry, once a well is tapped, it doesn’t make much sense to just plug it up and leave it if even people are using less of your product. You run that well dry and squeeze it for everything it was worth. Companies may not drill new wells or invest so much in shale, which would be a great thing for the environment, so either way we kind of win.

Plus, innovation continues with gasoline engines. Companies are finding new and creative ways to increase efficiency and maximize output. Take Mazda’s Skyactiv-X technology, which achieves 30% better fuel economy than its already good Skyactiv-G engines like I had in my Mazda 3 (R.I.P.). Those will debut in 2019 while the Volvos and BMWs of the world transition their lineups to all-electric and hybrid vehicles. Indeed it’s telling that the first companies committing to move to all-electrified cars are luxury automakers, because they know the cost is higher and their buyers can afford it. 

But for every Volvo XC90, there’s a Shelby Mustang and for every Honda NSX, a Dodge Demon. In fact, there have been many cars announced in the past year that rely solely on burning dinosaurs to go fast and create a great time, and there’s no reason to think that’s going to stop, especially when mixed with some hybrid and electric vehicles, auto manufacturers can meet corporate average fuel economy standards and still have room to blow on gas guzzling performance cars for the masses. Plus the low-cost cars will still be gas-powered, as will the classic cars and trailer queens and garage angels that have been sold up to this point and will be driven on weekends by old guys who share the same love for the symphony of combustion that I have. So I’ll continue to talk about electric cars and they’ll very much continue to be the future of motoring, but that doesn’t have to mean that internal combustion and gasoline will be relegated exclusively to our past.

Authored by
Devlin Riggs

Consumer Electronics Show Round-Up

Last week was the annual Consumer Electronics Show, and as vehicles become increasingly laden with technology, the show has become increasingly a car show. Here is a comprehensive round-up of everything CES had to offer petrolheads.

Samsung & Harman’s Autonomous Tech & Digital Cockpit

Technology company Samsung and high-end audio manufacturer Harman teamed up (well really, Samsung bought Harman last year for $8 billion) and showcased a new camera system for autonomous vehicles that included safety features like collision and lane departure warning systems and adaptive cruise control. They also showed off a so-called “digital cockpit” that is basically replacing the entire dashboard of a car with customizable screens that users can set so their profile comes up when they go to drive a car. It’s massive, and cool looking, but do we really need more distracting screens in front of us in cars? They’re kind of aiming to solve a problem that doesn’t exist.

Digital Assistants Get Baked (In)

A number of automakers, including Toyota, have announced plans to integrate Amazon’s Alexa into their future vehicles, but a lot of these cars already have Apple CarPlay and Android Auto. At CES, Google has announced that the company is rolling out an update to Android Auto this week that will add Google Assistant to compete with Alexa for the title of which AI can more poorly interpret the words “Call mom.” In reality, the list of functions you’ll be able to do with Google Assistant should be pretty impressive, from sending and receiving messages and playing music to reserving parking spaces with SpotHero and ordering coffee from Starbucks, all while keeping your hands on the wheel. Since more than 400 models of car or truck already feature Android Auto compatibility, this could be a major leg up for Google in the digital co-driver space.

Aptiv & Lyft’s Autonomous Rides

Outside the Las Vegas Convention Center, special BMWs outfitted by autonomous car maker Aptiv and organized by Lyft were available to shuttle CES delegates around the city to predetermined destinations. Sure, this is cheating a little bit because users couldn’t just input whatever destination they wanted, but the cars still had to deal with real traffic along their prescribed routes, and they did it without incident. Aptiv expects to have a Level 4 autonomous vehicle suite available to manufacturers like BMW next year.

VW & Uber Partner with Nvidia

Speaking of partnerships, Nvidia took the opportunity of CES to announce deeper partnerships with Volkswagen and Uber. With VW, Nvidia will help out with vehicle automation and AI, specifically for the I.D. Crozz and Buzz vehicles coming in 2022. This will apparently proliferate through Volkswagen’s other EVs as the lineup grows. That AI will also go into Uber’s fleet of self-driving taxis and freight trucks, where it has already been getting a bit of action in the autonomous Volvo XC90s. Uber says it has completed more than two million miles of autonomous driving in its tests.

Kia Niro EV Concept

In addition to the raw technology, we also got a look at some new cars, or at least concepts. One was the Kia Niro EV Concept,  which takes Kia’s Niro compact crossover, throws out its hybrid powertrain, and swaps it for a fully electric system offering 238 miles of range, which is the same as the Chevy Bolt, but in a larger package. The concept is very concept-y with its execution and has a ton of features that’ll never make it into the final car, like some huge screens and two-spoke steering wheel. But let’s be honest, if Kia gets a compact crossover EV to market that has good range and good looks, they will just be printing money come 2020.

Hyundai Nexo FCV

Kia’s parent company Hyundai also got in on the concept car action, unveiling their Nexo flagship crossover, which is a large hydrogen fuel cell vehicle with an electric motor developing 160 horsepower and almost double that in torque foot pounds. It’s not exactly fast at a 9.5 second 0-60, but it’s three seconds faster than Hyundai’s Tucson Fuel Cell Vehicle and has a range of 370 miles, which beats nearly every pure electric vehicle on the market. Plus it’s a crossover, so people will actually buy it. Now the only thing remaining is to figure out a hydrogen filling infrastructure…

Byton EV

Another new electric vehicle startup called Byton showed off their electric crossover at CES this year. It features what they call a coast-to-coast display, which is lovely that they thought enough to cover us here in flyover country. That screen also covers the entire dashboard and they say it will make it to the production model, which will apparently start around $45K and will be manufactured in a plant in Nanjing, China. It’ll get 250 miles of range in the base model and looks really nice on the inside and outside, but in a sort of plain way. It’s kind of a toned-down mix of a Range Rover and Lexus RX - it doesn’t really have an identity of its own, but it’s not ugly, and the screen in the middle of the steering wheel is kind of cool. It also has Amazon’s Alexa baked into it, so voice command should work, well, mostly okay. So why bother having the big screen? In any case, Byton, I’ll believe you can produce this car when you produce it. As we’ve seen with Faraday Future, the automotive industry is no stranger to Vaporware.

Toyota’s e-Palette Concept

One of the neatest automotive concepts at the show was Toyota’s e-Palette concept, which is what they think the future of mobility looks like. Basically, in this future, Toyota manufactures the hardware, basically a vehicle shell that is highly customizable. It could be a delivery van, a ride-sharing vehicle or mobile e-commerce platform. Since it’s all modular, it can even be all those things within the span of a day. While Toyota provides the hardware, companies would be the software designers, creating unique user experiences for the occupants or people to whom items are delivered. It’s an interesting idea and could be a workable concept, especially in cities. For now though, we’ll just have to rely on Tony in his red Toyota Avalon, who is only four blocks away but Lyft says it’ll take him 14 minutes to get here.

That’s all the major stories from CES this week, but we’re on the verge of the Detroit Motor Show, so stay tuned for that next week! 

Authored by
Devlin Riggs

This story originally appeared in the AllWaysDrive Podcast. Subscribe now and get the latest news every week!